Russia could expand its military aggression beyond Ukraine and launch an attack on the Baltic states as early as the end of 2026. According to one possible scenario, Moscow could begin an operation around Christmas, with the Estonian city of Narva and the strategically important Suwaลki Gap between Poland and Lithuania among the potential targets.
This warning was issued by Denys Yaroslavskyi, an officer with the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ Joint Rapid Reaction Forces Command, during an appearance on the Ukrainian talk show New Countdown.
According to Yaroslavskyi, military analysts have examined various scenarios for how the war could develop, including the worst-case outcomes. The assessments involved a military simulation method known as war gaming, which helps evaluate an adversary’s potential actions.
“All the scenarios we have worked through suggest a high probability that Russia could attack the Baltic states as early as this year, closer to Western Christmas,” Yaroslavskyi stated.
However, the officer emphasized that he was not claiming an attack was inevitable. In his view, European countries should closely monitor Moscow’s activities, particularly any escalation in hybrid operations.
These could include sabotage, cyberattacks, and information campaigns. Yaroslavskyi pointed to Russian narratives accusing the Baltic countries of allegedly harboring Nazis. He believes such statements could be part of an information campaign preparing the ground for further aggressive actions.
The Ukrainian officer specifically highlighted Narva, an Estonian city on the Russian border, and the Suwaลki Gap, a narrow stretch of territory connecting Poland and Lithuania while separating Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave from Belarus. The area is strategically important for NATO’s eastern flank.
Yaroslavskyi also suggested that the Kremlin could attempt to shift the main focus of its war from Ukraine to other European countries.
“I believe there is a high probability that the focus could shift away from Ukraine. The Russians have broken their teeth on Ukraine. Putin made a mistake by attacking people who refuse to surrender,” the officer said.
He added that back in 2024, he had predicted that the war would continue until 2028, after which, in his assessment, the risk of a Third World War could emerge. He said he has not changed that assessment.
Yaroslavskyi also criticized US President Donald Trump’s approach to negotiations with Vladimir Putin. In his view, the American leader mistakenly believes that the Russian president can be persuaded to compromise through diplomatic concessions.
Nevertheless, according to the Ukrainian officer, Trump continues to hope that at least an interim peace agreement can be reached before an upcoming international summit.
It is important to note that Yaroslavskyi’s proposed timeline and scenarios for a possible Russian attack on the Baltic states represent his own assessments, rather than officially confirmed intelligence about Russia’s military plans.
Leave a comment