Kremlin exaggerates Russian military gains as ISW exposes Moscow’s new information campaign
Russian soldier (Photo: Open sources)

Russia’s Defense Ministry is spreading unverified claims of major battlefield successes in Ukraine, seeking to convince the Russian public that its forces are advancing continuously. The Kremlin is using the Russian messaging platform Max to distribute these reports.

This is according to a report by the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

On October 9, Russia’s Defense Ministry published another battlefield update on Max, claiming that Russian troops had captured five Ukrainian settlements. According to Moscow, two of them were allegedly seized between October 3 and 9, while three others were supposedly captured within the final 24 hours of the reporting period.

The Russian military command also claimed to have disrupted Ukrainian attempts to rotate troops and break out of alleged encirclements near Dobropillia in Donetsk Oblast and Chorne in Kharkiv Oblast.

Separately, Russia’s Defense Ministry asserted that its Northern Grouping of Forces had allegedly seized 414 square kilometers of territory and 20 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast.

However, ISW analysts found insufficient evidence to support these claims and described them as exaggerated.

Ukrainian military officials have not reported any encirclement of their units in northern Kharkiv Oblast. Moreover, even Russian pro-war military bloggers have questioned their own command’s statements.

The Russian Defense Ministry’s report also mentioned long-range strikes against Ukrainian defense industry facilities, telecommunications infrastructure, and dry cargo vessels over the previous week. However, these claims require independent verification.

Analysts paid particular attention to how Russia is distributing its propaganda.

Russia’s Defense Ministry published its weekly report on Max rather than on its Telegram channel, which also targets an international audience.

According to ISW, this may represent a deliberate Kremlin effort to direct exaggerated claims of military victories primarily toward domestic audiences while limiting international scrutiny of questionable battlefield reports.

Russian military personnel (Photo: Open sources)

Max is a Russian state-backed messaging platform that authorities are actively promoting as part of their efforts to tighten control over the country’s digital space. Registration requires a Russian or Belarusian phone number, restricting access for some international users.

Analysts suggest that Moscow may be attempting to convince its population that its offensive operations remain successful, even as the pace of Russian military advances has slowed significantly.

Meanwhile, developments in several sectors of the front indicate that Ukrainian forces are achieving battlefield successes.

According to ISW assessments, Ukrainian Defense Forces are conducting effective counterattacks in Donbas, expanding their counterattack operations in the Lyman and Kostiantynivka directions.

Russian forces, meanwhile, have been unable to substantiate their claimed advances near Lyman, Kupiansk, and Dobropillia.

In addition, geolocated footage confirms that Ukrainian defenders continue to hold positions near Novoselivka, southeast of Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

According to the analysts, Russia’s military leadership appears to be attempting to compensate for its slowing offensive through an information campaign designed to present domestic audiences with an image of battlefield victories that are not always supported by the actual situation on the ground.

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