A new large-scale mobilization in Russia is unlikely to radically change the situation on the battlefield, but it could increase Russian losses and accelerate internal destabilization in the country. This view was expressed by Andrii Biletsky, commander of the Third Army Corps of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
According to Biletsky, simply increasing the number of infantry no longer provides a decisive advantage on the modern battlefield. Intelligence and the effective organization of reconnaissance and fire capabilities, particularly through the use of drones and sensors, are far more important.
“More infantry for the Russians will mean more killed in action,” Biletsky said, referring to the military term “Cargo 200,” commonly used to denote soldiers killed in action.
At the same time, the commander acknowledged that additional mobilization in Russia would create certain difficulties for Ukrainian forces. However, in his view, there is another side to it: heavy losses among mobilized troops could have significantly more serious domestic political consequences for Russia than losses among contract soldiers.
“Mobilization also has a downside. Mobilized troops are not contract soldiers. Accordingly, let’s put it this way, deaths among those mobilized will lead to a significant degree of social tension in Russia. So, if we hold out, I think Russian mobilization could perhaps even be positive for us. The sooner those processes of internal collapse in Russia begin — processes that are already clearly present at certain moments, but are not yet sufficient — the better,” Biletsky said.
